It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard question to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
