A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
